End of the recession
U.S. GDP rises 3.5% as stimulus kicks in – MarketWatch.
I think today’s GDP number of 3.5% gain in the 3rd quarter marks the end of the current recession. For background, the economy contracted at a negative 6.4% rate in the first quarter of 2009, shrank 0.7% in the second quarter and now has turned positive.
According to the government bean counters the recession officially started in December, 2007. Before this recession the post WWWII record length was 16 months. This one will be a record, but not by more than 6 or 7 months.
Remember that employment is the last factor to recover after then end of a recession. Typically it takes 6 to 9 months of improving economy before the job situation starts to improve.
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