Money and Investing Thoughts

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The 1st quarter earnings release for Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (CSN) (SID: 10.88 +0.29 +2.74%) is linked above. I like CSN for its exposure to the Brazilian manufacturing market and huge EBITDA margins. Revenues and profits for the first quarter were down about a third from a year earlier as the Brazilian economy slowed due to the global economic crisis.

At the same time the stock of CSN, as traded on the NYSE, is up over 50% so far in 2009. It seems the value of this quality company fell a little too far.

The press release from CSN has an nice overview of Brazil’s economy, the country’s steel using sectors and steel production and sales for the major global markets. If you are interested in Brazil or the steel industry this is good reading.

The news today may cause the shares of CSN to continue their pullback. For the long term investor, it may be a good time to pick up some shares.

Anyone watching the results of U.S. based airlines over the last 6 months know they have struggled mightily with higher fuel prices. In contrast, my favorite airline stock, Panama based Copa Holdings (CPA: 71.59 +1.79 +2.56%) has had two nicely profitable quarters in a row. For the just released 3rd quarter Copa had net earnings of $30.3 million or 70¢ per share, the same level as the 2nd quarter. The earnings are well below the $1.08 for the 3rd quarter of 2007, but very nice results considering the fuel cost environment.

Copa Holdings is the holding company for Copa Airlines and Aero Republica. They have an extremely modern, fuel efficient fleet of Boeing 737-800 and Embraer-190 aircraft. By year end they will be serving 45 cities in 24 countries, giving them the most extensive Latin America network. Copa flies to New York, Washington, D.C., Miami and Los Angeles in the U.S.

I believe economic growth in Latin America will continue to be strong and Copa is a good way to play that growth. The company is very well managed and I expect earnings to start growing rapidly with falling fuel prices. Estimated earnings of $4 per share for 2009 could be way short and $4 bucks already looks pretty good against a $25 share price.

CPA is a component of this site’s hypothetical Opportunities Portfolio.

Aegean Marine Petroleum Network Inc. (ANW: 5.44 +0.22 +4.21%) has been a public company for 7 quarters now and their growth track has been steadily progressing. The 3rd quarter results just released were no exception. Aegean Marine is building a worldwide network of ship refueling facilities and the bunker tankers that provide fuel to ocean going vessels. They have expanded into 12 ports and currently have approximately 30 bunker tankers on their way to 52 by the end of 2010.

To track their growth the company reports the total amount of bunker fuel sold and the gross spread per metric ton. For the 3rd quarter the company sold 1.34 million metric tons, up 49% from Q3, 2008 and 8.6% higher than Q2, 2008. The gross spread per ton in the 3rd quarter was $32.75, up 32% from 2007. From comments on the conference call the management will be happy if the gross spread stays in the high $20′s or better. Net income per share also increased to 25¢ for the quarter compared to 17¢ a year earlier, a 47% gain.

The growth factors that ANW are building on are still in play. The worldwide number of bunker tankers is rapidly shrinking as single hull models are forced out of service by regulation much faster than new double hull ships can be built. The industry is ripe for consolidation as many smaller players are having trouble obtaining working capital in the current financial environment. ANW is now the largest bunker fleet in the world with 29 tankers out of a worldwide total of over 1,600 (down from 3,500 at the start of 2007). Besides continuing to increase the size of their fleet, ANW has significant upside potential from the current utilization average of 550 metric tons/vessel/day. Their U.A.E. facility has had quarters with almost 1,000 ton per day utilization.

As was pointed out in the conference call, ships need the same amount of fuel no matter how much they are earning. Aegean Marine is building a worldwide network to provide fuel to all kinds of ships from tankers to dry bulk to cruise ships. A year ago this stock was over $40 based on its growth prospects. The growth has continued and the prospects are even stronger.

ANW is a component of this site’s hypothetical Opportunities Portfolio.

I check in on the front page of Marketwatch.com and I spy a new index over there on the right side with the other indexes, oil price, bond yields and gold. It is called the Global Dow at MarketWatch and as I hover over it I see it just started tracking today, 11-11-2008. So I am curious and start digging to see if there is any new news but find very little.

The Global Dow, symbol GDOW, started tracking yesterday on Google Finance, half-way through yesterday on MarketWatch and this morning on Yahoo Finance. A couple of search tries at WSJ.com came up empty.

Here are some interesting facts on this new index. They have back dated to get returns back to 2001 (base value 1000 on 12/31/2000), but we will consider the index newborn yesterday. The GDOW opened on Monday, 11-11, with a value of 1,558.34. It is sitting right at 1,500 as I write this. The index consists of 150 stocks from both established and emerging markets and both established and emerging industries. The component stocks were chosen at the whim of the folks at Dow Jones. More data:

• Median market cap: $33 billion.
• Mean market cap: $51 billion.
• Smallest and largest market cap: $1. billion and $385 billion.
• Dividend yield: 2.98%
• Trailing PE (including negative): 11.52

Breakdown by region:

• North America: 43.91% (U.S.: 42.27%)
• Europe: 31.99%
• Asia + Australia: 21.29%
• Latin America: 2.82%

All data is as of October, 31, 2008. Source Dow Jones.

I like having a single global index to keep an eye on and it will be interesting to see how the components change as time goes along. You can see the complete list of companies in the index and obtain more information at www.globaldow.com.

Nordic American Tanker (NAT: 14.14 +0.07 +0.50%) has announced their 3rd quarter results and declared a dividend of $1.61 per share payable to shareholders of record on Nov. 21. NAT has now paid a total of $4.89 for the past 4 quarters. The company has now paid a dividend for 45 consecutive quarters.

NAT is the easiest company I know to understand and the hardest to predict results for more that a quarter down the road. Nordic American has a fleet of about a dozen Suezmax oil tankers that they contract on the spot market. The work to keep their per ship expenses very low and pass all free cash flow earnings on as the quarterly dividend. The currently have no debt and 2 tankers on order.

They are unpredictable because revenues and the dividend fluctuate right along with the spot market rate for Suezmax tankers. Over the last few years I have seen the daily rate fluctuate from under $20,000 per day to over to $80,000 per day. NAT’s dividend has ranged from 40¢ to $1.88. For the last 4 years the dividend has averaged $1.17 per quarter.

Since we are almost half way through the 4th quarter I will predict the next dividend will come in at $1.40 to $1.50. I base my assumption on what little information NAT gives out and keeping an eye on the spot rate for Suezmax tankers.

Note: NAT is a component of this site’s Income and Opportunities Portfolios and I hold the stock in my own account.